Five Days to the Finish Line, America Decides

Words Sarah Adama

The end is in sight, with 3rd November around the corner, all eyes are on Washington. Americans are turning out in their numbers to cast early ballots; the fate of the candidates will soon be known, but will voters turn out on ground on election day?

`Matt Smith Photographer / Shutterstock.com`

A presidential race dominated by the coronavirus pandemic, the death of George Floyd followed by a wave of anti-racism protests bigger than what America has seen in the past 50 years and very expensive campaigns, (14bil) this has become perhaps the most important mid-term election in our lifetime. A record shattering number, over 70 million Americans casting early votes, more than 50% of the total turn out in 2016 - it’s evident that voters know what’s at stake. Whilst incumbent President Trump trails behind Joe Biden in the national polls, both candidates are nearing the end of the race in key battleground, yet it is quite difficult to predict the outcome of 3rd November. Biden has bargained on the empathy vote, but does this guarantee him a victory? Two party conventions, two presidential debates and many wild campaigns moments later, the race has remained surprisingly stable, but the stakes are high. President Trump has not been able to close the poll gap but will Biden’s lead convert to actual votes?

Who Elects the President?

Whilst Biden leads in the national polls, Trump’s re-election cannot be ruled out. Looking back at 2016, Democratic candidate Hilary Clinton won the popular vote by over 3 million more votes than President Trump, yet Trump took to the white house. The popular vote doesn’t determine who will win the 3rd November general election. In fact, the United States has had five presidents who lost the overall popular vote but won the election. Here’s how it works. When Americans cast their vote, they are actually voting for a representative of that candidate’s party, known as an elector. The college is a 538-member body, who then vote for the president on behalf of their state - All that’s needed is a simple majority of 270 to 538 votes. This makes some states absolutely vital to the presidential candidates, as electoral votes are assigned in proportion to the state’s population. In short, more populous states mean offer more electoral college votes. Biden is facing the same hurdle Clinton did in 2016, small margins in a few swing states meant that trump was able to gain victory in several swing states and win more electoral college votes.

Victory in the Supreme Court

Just a week to the election, the successful Republican push to fill the opening in the Supreme court has, over the weekend, sealed President Trump is 6-3 conservative majority on the bench, in the country’s top judicial court. Judge Amy Coney Barrett could cast a decisive vote on major cases looming before the court; a ruling on abortion rights and Trump-backed challenge to the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare). Rival Biden used this as an opportunity to remind Americans that the appointment of Judge Barrett is a “stark reminder to every American that your vote matters.” It’s evident how this gives the republicans a stronger footing, as democrats continue to argue that the victor of the 3rd November election should pick the nominee.

Elections are Won and Lost in Battleground States

America has its ‘red’ and ‘blue’ states. Republican popular states like Idaho, Alaska and many southern states are red, whilst democratic popular states, the blue states include California, Illinois and the New England region of the northeast coast. Candidates can easily win electoral votes in their solid states, so victory depends on the swing states. Swing or ‘toss-up’ states change their hand depending on the candidate, and they hold very high stakes. The key electoral battlegrounds include the states of Florida, Iowa, Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, all of which Trump won in the 2016 elections.

Whilst Trump’s core demographics are overrepresented in these swing states, early voter records show the trends to watch out for; Young voters and new voters. Over 25% of early voters in North Carolina didn’t vote in the 2016 election. The race is tight in the swing states – current records indicate that Biden has a narrow advantage in a handful of swing states despite a sold national lead over republican president Trump. The democratic candidate’s victory depends on how much support he can gain in these electoral battlegrounds, and currently his margins are narrow. Texas is among one of the states that may shock the polls - the race here is close, the republican dominance might just be shaken. With the high voter turn-out in the past few days, combined with the small margin of victory Trump gained in 2016, the polls have given democrats optimism as the margin is only getting smaller for rival Trump.

How Americans are voting

In the U.S, voters are able to cast their ballots before 3rd November, by post or in person. The pandemic is one of the main reasons people are voting earlier, at least 30 states have made it easier and more accessible for people to cast absentee votes; citizens can cite COVID concerns as a legitimate reason for postal voting. With states implementing battle drop boxes, offering prepaid postage on ballots sent by post as well as practicing universal mail-in voting, Voter participation could be the highest in a century. We are seeing some key trends in these elections; Young voters, new voters and black voters. The political power of these demographics can’t be denied. Historic efforts to suppress black voters has meant that many black Americans will be voting for the first time. Data analysis shows that more than six times as many black voters had cast early votes by 18 October when compared to the 2016 stats. This means, these demographics could decide the 2020 election.

Young people, 18-24 have accounted for more than 3 million of the early votes, with over 2 million cast in 14 battle ground states. In battleground states like Florida and Wisconsin, the democrats have maintained an advantage among African Americans, though their support has slowly declined in the last few years A study from PEW research centre shows that more than one-in-three black eligible voters live in 2020 battleground states, with the highest percentages in Georgia (32% of 2.4million), North Carolina (22% of 1.7 million) and Florida (14% of 2.2million).

Whilst young voters are turning out in their numbers, voting data suggests that black voters are less likely to support democrats. Young votes will be critical to the 3rd November election, faced with the pandemic, a recession and social-justice uprisings, the youth-led movement for justice will only look to a party that is dedicated to policing and institutional reforms. Meanwhile Democratic candidates are trying to find a pathway in southern states, traditionally dominated by Republicans, by engaging with new voters many of whom are young and minorities. Democratic candidate Biden ramped up campaign efforts in states like Georgia, Florida, North Carolina and Florida, the top states for black population gains. The state of Georgia, has seen record voter registration and turnout, making the seats for these states very competitive. With young people less likely to turn out in an election, millennials and Gen Z just might swing the course of the elections. Registered democrats are casting their ballots in much higher numbers than registered republicans, yet the victory on election day will hang on who turns out to vote.

`Nicole Glass Photography / Shutterstock.com`

Race to the Finish Line

The outbreak has framed the campaign. With a surge of cases, there is now an avid focus on Trump’s handling of the pandemic, it is clear today that majority of American voters believe he mishandled the virus. Whilst Joe Biden made this a central part of his campaign, President Trump spent the latter part of the last 8 months downplaying the virus claiming that it isn’t ‘real’, even after contracting it. As doomsday draws nearer, both candidates are sending contrasting messages. President trump is urging states to shun lockdown whilst Biden is promising further lockdowns and has continued small socially distanced events whilst his opponents holds huge rallies. With only a few days to the finish line, Trump is on the defensive and now focuses on the virus, making it his goal to end COVID-19, rallying supporters this week in Arizona, “Don’t let it dominate your life,” The president’s claiming that the nation is ‘rounding the turn’ on the virus cases, has been counteracted by Biden who vows to deal honestly with the American people and “let science drive our decisions”.

The candidates will go head to head in Florida on Friday, where they are currently tied. If Biden emerges victorious in this major swing state, Trump’s re-election would be highly unlikely. North Carolina, another major state is currently up to chance.

Sarah Adama - Political Editor